Emerging India – a Force for Good! Opportunity beckons

Sep 18, 2015

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Today, I was invited to witness an interesting dialogue session with the Hon. Finance Minister of India Mr. Arun Jaitley. Many of the prominent people from Singapore came out to listen to it, as it was a prelude to Shri Narendra Modi’s visit to Singapore in November. The theme of the session was “Emerging India: Opportunity Beckons” and framed as a dialogue between the Minister and Mr. Piyush Gupta, head of DBS and an eloquent speaker and moderator in his own right. Co-hosted by FICCI and the Indian High Commission,  the FICCI delegation to Singapore included CEO delegates from Indian banks and government as well as private companies. The Indian High Commissioner to Singapore prefaced the discussion by referring to the large investment flows from Singapore to India and the fact that this has seen an uptick, to $3+ b/ quarter which is higher than ever before. The FICCI president referred to the Singapore-India framework economic cooperation agreement that has been promoted on a “5S” plank: Scale up trade and investments, Speed up connectivity, Smart cities, Skill development and State focus.

The Minister highlighted many of the achievements of his government – including the advance in centre state relations, and the fact that individual states are now listing their Doing Business indicators and caring about their place in the rankings. Also, the encouraging fact that even when large landmark reforms like the Land Acquisition Act, the Labour reforms Act and the Indirect Tax (unified GST) reforms got stalled in Parliament, the Centre has tried to get it passed by individual progressive states – in this way, this provides a fillip which the rest can follow eventually when they see how beneficial it is to do reforms to get votes. He gave many examples of the excellent progress which his government has shown in the last 16 months including privatization initiatives in railways, initiatives for defence manufacturing in India, roadmap for banking reforms in India, and many future initiatives including the national investment in infrastructure fund which they are working to finalize at the earliest. He said that as government, they tried to invest their time, energy and resources in items that would have the maximum impact – in terms of de-bottlenecking the latent purchasing power of the population at large, and thereby for kick-starting growth, while still managing the budget so as to not overshoot the fiscal deficit target they have set for themselves.

Very sensible speech,  impressive because the Minister was wide ranging in the topics he touched on, and frank and open too. And Mr. Piyush Gupta is not one to mince his words, so very courteously but unerringly he asked questions that was on the tip of everybody’s tongue, and the Minister was able to tackle  every one- from issues like infrastructure deficit, to maintaining investor confidence, to taxation issues and the constant flip-flops on these grounds that can spook investors who are thinking of coming to India. And there were questions from the audience too- about the Look East policy having to become an Act East policy,about how Electronic Payments and greater digitization could out hope for greater transparency in money flows into and within India, and even on how to ensure that State Electricity Boards that are in the doldrums can get a rescue package that ensures that they all don’t fall into the same trap yet again.

I had a compelling question myself, which I just could not resist raising to the Minister and the august audience. My question was on how to ensure that our uniquely Indian problems are to be met with a uniquely Indian solution? On the one hand a vibrant democracy; and a surging young population with the energy, the capability and the passion, just lacking the resources to follow their dreams. On the other hand, the world is changing- and thus, centralized, supply-side, top-down and resource-driven solutions relying on economies of scale and scope, can go only so far. How would the policy makers try to unleash the demand-side solutions, and the unlimited creativity of the decentralized Indian population, to solve their own uniquely local circumstances through solutions that will make the world sit up and notice? From everything I had heard today, it seems that the government truly appreciates the scale of this challenge, and is taking steps to do exactly this- and indeed, the Minister replied courteously and exhaustively to my query, citing how the Universal Banking initiative, the impetus to Irrigation reforms, the efforts to spur greater innovation and entrepreneurship through providing framework solutions, would all be targeted at exactly this mass-scale, technology-enabled, institutional-reform driven model of governance to unleash the power of the great Indian consumer!

All in all, one of the most impressive speeches I have heard from a politician level session in India in some time. In fact, it compared very well with the kind of discussions we have gotten used to hearing from the highly educated, committed and principled minister level government functionaries here in Singapore. As the chairman of the session, Mr. Banerjee put it so eloquently- the world wants India to succeed. It’s a force for good in this world. May these noble aspirations be met with success!

Formula One Racing – and International Development

The worlds of Formula One Racing and of international development may seem to be diametrically opposite- one is about providing the highest of luxury and employing highest of technology and great attention to detail to seemingly trivial pursuits, while the other is seeking to serve the larger population who may currently be without access to the most basic of services.

But last weekend, while in the midst of the F1 Race fever, and watched with fascination and bated breath the dramatic finish where Sebastian Vettel raced through to win the grand prize here in Singapore, I also got some insights about the connection between these two fields. This advanced race technology – financed by the fevered contributions of willing fans- ultimately translates into the mainstream in consumer form, and value that can save millions of lives.

For me personally, it did not come as a surprise to hear that the race technologies developed and tested on the front line of Formula 1 Racing are thereafter used in many other industries and sectors. So, obviously, tyres from ever-lighter materials and wear-resistant technologies translate into industrial material applications; and energy saving and waste heat capture technologies to lighten the car’s load, can translate into industrial clean-tech.

For me, the epiphany was when I heard that the race technology, wherein engineers analyse data to find the best strategy for the team and transmit this data to teams in real-time during the race, running 1,000s of simulations per minute, is now being converted into healthcare data analytics applications that can fine-tune a surgeon’s prowess in conducting operations. And that the University of Oxford, long known as a dedicated, innovative and cutting-edge research university, is at the forefront in partnering with McLaren and SAP in this venture.

So, perhaps one day- the very technologies that enable an F1 driver to shave the last 5 seconds off his time to win the race, may also enable a world class surgeon to reach through into the heart of the wilderness and direct a difficult operation conducted by a practitioner at the coal-face. Cutting-edge data analytics and ever-improving broadband connectivity, linking world-renowned surgeons to healthcare technicians on the field, may happen sooner than we think. That, indeed, would be a fitting connection worth waiting for!

For more on this, link to the article I found below:

Formula 1 Technology Is Being Used To Make Better Surgeons

 

 

“This time it’s different”- is Banking in India really at a tipping point?

Last week, it was informative and interesting to witness a lively debate in Singapore, in a global conclave of distinguished bankers, on the prognosis for India’s banking sector. The panellists, comprising senior bankers from state-run Indian as well as global banks with presence in India, and with participation by the banking regulator and a host of distinguished guests, concluded that the prospects for India’s banking sector are highly favourable.

We certainly hope so!  India’s economy is at a critical juncture where millions of young, upwardly mobile, smart-phone connected, urban and semi urban as well as rural consumers aspire to be connected into the global economy in a formal manner for the first time. But as I was musing during the conference and after, a fundamental question arises – i.e when years and years of banking reform, careful and conservative regulation, concerted push on regulating the recognizing and treatment of non-performing assets, and capitalization had not led to much progress, what are the prime reasons for a sudden volte-face in the prognosis for these banks? 

It’s not just that the Jan Dhan Yojana, which is connecting millions of new consumers per day to the formal banking channels, (thereafter to stimulate accounted-for cash utilization, credit uptake and conditional cash transfers of subsidy payments), is predicted to create greater velocity of cash in the system. Or just that the Aadhar (Universal ID) scheme has enabled the formalizing of processes, such as of census and data collection in India. And that the internet revolution, in which India has more people coming online per day than many emerging nations combined, has led to deeper connectivity and digital uptake via smartphone (a veritable bank branch in your pocket) that has allowed services to reach places that had never even known what it means to get light or heat or water on demand.

The conjecture is that it will probably be a confluence of the above factors, but will also need much, much more. Enabling digital technology in all aspects of the banking business – from channels and processes and data analytics, to operating model incentives and even culture- can fundamentally transform the business model for banks in India, in ways that can serve to leapfrog the huge banking infrastructure gap to achieve striking new business models that can serve the customer at low cost and yet maintain sustainability of their business.

From this vantage point, it appears that India does seem to have a chance at the cusp of a sweeping revolution in banking; and if done right, this could indeed reach a tipping point in terms of prospects to unleash innovation and progress upon the sector. The momentum behind this renewed optimism on banking in India, (which remains to be seen if it will be borne out in actual practice), would therefore seem to need an end-to-end innovation and unprecedented partnership– in regulation, technology, industry practices and most importantly, the political will – which can make or break this agenda into a success.  Also, addressing security concerns in branchless banking is imperative as this can make or break such initiatives. However, as banking is a proxy for the economy as a whole, it can have huge benefit for the economy. Certainly hope this comes about!

Infrastructure as a Service

Sep 15, 2015

 

Last week, I was invited to chair ALB’s Southeast Asia Project Finance Conference 2015  at the Mandarin Orchard on September 10 in Singapore.  This practitioners’ conference was organised by Thomson Reuters and Asian Legal Business and brought together key stakeholders from all over ASEAN in the infrastructure finance sector. The conference discussed the key opportunities and challenges in arriving at market based solutions for financing of burgeoning infrastructure investments in ASEAN countries, ahead of the setting up of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) later this year.

Some non-obvious and noteworthy insights from the conference:

1. Emphasizing Infrastructure Productivity: If the huge gap in infrastructure financing requirement vs. availability of finance is to be met, productivity of infrastructure investment should be prioritized. This will help to narrow the gap by reducing the demand for financing. But also, it’s good for the environment.This can play out in some non-obvious ways. For instance- there’s a huge power deficit, but should the bias be in favor of setting up coal – fired power generating stations? Even if these were clean coal or CTL technologies, this can only add to the carbon emissions that are playing such havoc on our planet. Alternatives such as setting up a HVDC transmission line to transport power across borders, should be more thoroughly explored first! Especially relevant given that AEC will be a reality by Dec 2015.

2.  Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, or AIIB is going to be “the new animal” in the room. Everyone is wondering how the new China-dominated AIIB will behave. Will it operate like the existing Japan-dominated ADB, US dominated World Bank, European Investment Bank etc? Or will AIIB jettison all the Environmental and Safety safeguards that have sometimes hobbled the speedy implementation of projects at these multilaterals, to take a significant swipe at meeting the huge infrastructure funding gap – but with concomitant negative effects on the environment? Will they develop capability to discern bad deals from good, and deal sensibly with the tradeoffs? Only time will tell, but the consensus was that – on balance, having a powerful China working with other countries rather than  going it alone (as has often happened in Africa), is all to the good.

3. Let a Thousand PPPs Bloom- and Infrastructure as a Service: The successful financial close of projects like the Singapore Sports Hub – which was a privately financed large, complex, social infrastructure project that got to financial close at the peak of the 2008 crisis- shows that we can hope for Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to solve the infrastructure crisis . But then, SportsHub’s business case was robust despite significant deterioration in assumptions. But most importantly- it is not just about privatization of a large stadium infrastructure that is the goal here. After all, it is a concrete block that could just as well have been done by an EPC contractor. Privatization of infrastructure as a service  is the key differential in this case- and provision of vibrant events and activities within the complex by hosts of private providers.

4. Innovative Financing for Infrastructure Projects. There were many other interesting points made- ex: about the Project Bond market, and ASEAN’s concrete steps in regulatory and institutional terms, to stimulate greater financing through this better matched funding mechanism. A day will come, not so far away, where a highly rated project bond for a well structured project, will be perceived as less risky than a straightforward corporate bond – now so ubiquitous a funding mechanism in this post-2008 crisis world. The specifics of various projects in ASEAN were discussed, and Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and of course Singapore all have enough to recommend them and more as regards projects that can be financed. However, the holy grail of infrastructure financing still remains- and that is to understand that the risks are best allocated to the parties best capable of bearing those risks, and also that the extended tenor of these projects make them best suitable for local financiers with deep pockets and capital markets. Augmented of course through judicious intervention of the international sponsors, banks, financiers and even private equity in making sure that these projects come to fruition.

All in all, a good conference, and a hopeful prognosis for the future of infrastructure finance in ASEAN. But, significant challenges remain – and the sooner these are tackled the better, for the 600+million population in our midst. #MyIndustry

Open House – for my beautiful Bangalore

October 25, 2015

Being from Bangalore, I am among those feeling increasingly horrified at the ugly murals, and horrible “Magic Boxes” proliferating all over our beautiful city. But Bangalore is not just any Indian city. It is one of the youngest, hippest, most creative, tech-savvy and brightly magnetic cities – attracting creative and committed citizens from all over India and the world. And there are stillbeautiful pockets of architecture, nooks and crannies that are all too often getting overrun with the urban sprawl that is so common to modern cities everywhere.

But if Bangalore’s draw is to be sustained, notwithstanding the pressing infrastructure and affordability concerns, there is also a simultaneous need for promoting liveability- which in turn needs aesthetically pleasing and eco-friendly, good design of our urban habitats and public spaces. Given Bangaloreans’ well-known fervour for tech and start-ups, could there be appetite for innovative new ways to get citizens to pay more attention toart and beauty in the built environment –  ultimately creating a more prosperous and liveable city and state?

I got first intrigued by this concept when I visited San Francisco this year, and this time took the opportunity to look inside some of the beautiful Victorian houses that have been opened to the public for free, to appreciate from inside. I found it wonderful that members of the public can enter well-occupied and currently used buildings which we would usually only pass when walking to work or home. So this led me to research whether there is a way for concerned citizens and people with an interest in Bangalore, even if currently living outside, to draw inspiration in their quest to increase the “voice” for beauty-loving citizens. And I found one potential solution – involving plugging into aworldwide movement that has exponentially grown from its origin inLondon to now include over 32 cities all over the Western world, including Barcelona, New York, Rome, Chicago, Melbourne and Prague.

Opening Doors, Opening Minds

“Open House” is a term that was originally applied by realtors – where a house for sale or rent is opened for inspection by prospective clients, without an appointment. But a young organization, Open House London, started in1992 has now evolved this concept into a much-anticipated annual festival, held at various times in different cities, that has served as a magnet for architecture-loving people everywhere.

Called the Open House Worldwide Movement, it is built around a simple but powerful concept– i.e, that showcasing outstanding design and architecture in the city for all to experience for free, over a 3 day weekend. allows people to have a direct experience with architecture and the buildings. In turn, the wide majority of inhabitants of the city will start toactively care about how the city is developed, about new buildings that are to be built, and about public spaces and their usage. Is this something that is the privilege of wealthy cities alone? Can we learn from their spirit ofopenness, ingenuity and sheer community spirit, to transform our urban environment – at the intersection of heritage preservation, eco-sustainability and low-cost but aesthetically pleasing design– and thereby preserve our city for generations to come?

In its current form, the festival opens a select group of buildings all over the city for free (but orderly) access to the public during the designated 3 days, in a manner that would otherwise not be accessible. The buildings included each year could be wide-ranging- from buildings of historical importancewhich are currently used for government or private purposes, to temples and buildings of cultural interest, to modern buildings and contemporary orprivately owned stately homes. Heritage Bungalows, of the kind seen on Cunningham Road and others in a sad state of disrepair for lack of funds and care, could well get a new lease of life with positive love and attention of this sort. Somewhat like Dubai’s ArtBus tours that showcase galleries in the city during Art Week-  or the various festivals to themes like Literature, Music, Art or even the eclectic Night Festival that is held in various venues during particular weekends in Singapore.

In Bangalore, the increasing success of startup festivals like Construkt and the improving climate for open source innovation  and the grassroots drivensharing economy, lead me to believe that this may be an idea whose time has come. I am sure there are no shortage of architectural sites that could be included, but I have had private tours to the modern Infosys campus in Electronic City that is a joy to behold; similarly the ISKCON temple in Yashwanthpur has a beautiful tour of its wonderful Akshaya Patra kitchens which I have had the privilege of observing first hand. And I will always remember the beautiful home of a dear friend in Bangalore where a painting by the late M.F Hussain adorned the entire wall, and the heritage setting of the bungalow itself, with its cute doorways and jockey-size entrances. Similarly in Delhi, when I was given a conducted tour of the Rashtrapati Bhavan – run by dedicated volunteers, some of whom are professors in history! It reminded me of the tour of the magnificent Blenheim Palace which came alive for me because of the skills of our guide, and also of the public buildings such as Town Hall and Parliament House in Melbourne. An initiative of our current President Shri. P. Mukherjee, now anyone from the public can view it, albeit booked in advance –  a well-curated offering that is really worth the visit.

Seeing the same old place, but with new eyes 

In the midst of troubling and pressing concerns like organizing better mobility of citizens or dealing with the power and water crises or even sorting out garbage, these concerns about aesthetics and  culture can be dismissed by some as relatively trivial. However, my thesis is that we do not have the luxury of doing things sequentially. Before long, almost all the heritage buildings could be swallowed up in the name of “progress”. On the contrary, a relatively simple initiative to enable plugging into a worldwide movement would also enable residents as well as international visitors to the city to explore, and value, the outstanding houses, buildings, infrastructure and landscapes that illustrate Bangalore’s rich history. Eventually, as the organizations and ecosystem around the movement mature, this can provide the basis around which smaller informative and entertaining talks, tours, workshops and events can be hosted regularly throughout the year. These talks and special guided tours would partner with both for-profit and non-profit organizations such as architect organizations, urban planning and design institutes and citizens forums which would be at the forefront of public engagement with Bangalore’s city planners and government. The hope is that eventually, it would become self-sustaining, both through ticket sales and booths by private sector, but also drawing inspiration from its sister cities and demonstrating thevalue of the initiative to the city itself.  

Framework

Although this festival would be designed as a form of Public Private Partnership initiative, it needs at its core a strong organizational structure. Essentially, a non-profit organization would have to be identified having primary aim and objective to promote value of the aesthetics and heritage in architecture and the built environment. An existing organization (with reputation and resources, and connections) can host this initiative, something like INTACH used to do in Delhi.  But basically, around this organization it can then be possible to coalesce and rally relevant stakeholders in the city to spur aesthetic development and ultimately create a voice for beauty and heritage-loving citizens everywhere.

There would be a nominal fee to pay to the Open House Worldwide, and several meetings to be held in the planning stages of the event as well. So a detailed budgeting exercise should be drawn out and a staffing effort- as like other festivals of this nature, it would initially be funded by a combination ofgovernment, non-government, charitable and corporate sustainabilityresources.  Eventually, if it could evolve into the type of institution with its own urban museum, such as we find hosted by Urban Renewal Authority (URA) in Singapore, it would be success indeed!

Bangalore’s citizens engaged – in the value of good urban design

Bangalore has no shortage of engaged community-minded and heritage-preserving citizens, eco-friendly and sustainability oriented developers and architects, innovative corporates and business leaders with a passion to make a difference, and planners aiming to retain the liveability of the city along with those very things that make Bangalore unique. However, the question always arises as to who would bell the cat? Gandhiji said, “Be the change you wish to see in the world. ” Can activist citizens forums like Janagraha or local chapters of organizations like Rotary, form a focal point around which others can rally to offer help and support? And involving theatrical and artistic movements like the wonderful Ranga Shankara, or Nrityagram – the dance village started by the late Protima Bedi- as well as real estate developers and architectural firms that are committed to the aesthetic and environment and not just to profits. This initiative can gain from the support of residents and foreigners alike – as there are plenty who would like to know more about the cultural and historical genesis of this city they have learned to call home. Eventually,need to get the mainstream realtors  involved – which can seem difficult, but if consumer demand were dictating this, the money would follow.

Ultimately, can enough citizens care about Bangalore that this city could also join in the greater global movement that puts a spotlight on the unique spaces and places that form the foundation of the city, thereby providing an opportunity for the citizens as well as visitors to engage with planners on what makes the city unique? And most importantly, offer a shared space to have those ongoing conversations that reflect how we live and work, and in turn, gain insights into our future city.

Girl Rising – and Women on Boards

Oct 31, 2015

Yesterday, I felt privileged to attend a special screening of the moving documentary “Girl Rising“. This is a film framed around a set of true human stories about exploited girls, who each turn their situation around by demanding, and getting support for, their dream of getting an education. So whether it is young Suma, from Nepal,  who through her haunting songs got many “Kamalaris” like herself freed from bonded labor; or little Ruksana, from India, who got her father’s support in the male dominated and ever-shifting world of the poor migrant worker, to pursue her dream of doing art- or even young Amina, who courageously  in the hills of Afghanistan pushed and pushed to get literacy for herself and her sisters- the film’s haunting message has now sparked off a movement which is continuing to get powerful supporters around the globe. And the movement is unique because it pairs relatively fortunate girls from the urban cities with individual girls in these hinterlands to tell their stories, or as its website’s byline goes, “uses storytelling to inspire action that gets girls into classrooms worldwide“. Clearly, there is ample evidence that educating young girls and putting the same urgency and priority to it as for their brothers, has lasting benefits to society as a whole.  And that women’s empowerment, whether by educating a girl, enabling her participation in business or sports, or putting her in a position of decision making power and authority, all have tremendous impact in terms of long term sustainability of society. Never more urgent than now!

This event and other similar events to support the gender agenda, in turn set off a train of thoughts.  A couple of weeks ago, I had been similarly inspired when I attended the fifth annual Deutsche Bank conference on Women in Asian Business, an organization that is dedicated to inspiring women in leadership positions in industry in Asia. My expectation in going to this conference was to hear discussions about the future of women in leadership positions and boards, about how the innovation process improves by enhancing diversity, how to attract the next generation of women to leadership positions in industry and to be a leader in today’s global market, and other subjects related to key aspects of women in business.

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Many of my expectations were indeed met by the one-day conference which was addressed by a roster of very good speakers and timely round table discussions- and clearly there is evidence from well-respected research  that diversity on boards does increase organizational performance; and reflected in theshare price, as seen from the stock-market indices relative to benchmarks. However one question remained unclear to me throughout the conference. Awareness aside, are there any as yet unexplored paths to concretelyaddress the roadblocks in getting more women on boards?

Singapore is one of the most innovative and thought-leading locations in Asia. But it is striking that in Singapore as well as Asia generally, we still see a paucity of women leaders at CEO and board level. Indeed it was quite amusing that when the Stock Exchange Board of India tried to enforce this last year by a directive to have at least one woman on the board of every one of the 8000-9000 listed firms, the result was so pathetic that the SEBI chairman called the situation “shameful”. And as Poonam Barua, a leader in one of the active organizations looking for greater representation for women on boards in India describes rather well: “There is no issue of supply of qualified women among India’s roughly 600 million women, or any shortage of ambition. Instead, it seems that companies themselves have been reluctant to accept different voices.” Similar situation in Singapore Stock Exchangewhen Magnus Bocker tried to get listed companies to “foster better governance and business performance with a more gender-diverse board.”

It can certainly be difficult for qualified women to go and convince each of those companies out there that there is value to having diversity on their boards. However it is  also clear that there are many companies with boards largely comprised of old-time members that form cozy coteries and who are unwilling to force open the gates unless regulatory push makes this happen. Simultaneously, it is also important that when regulations are made, there should also be ample and ready pipeline of supply of qualified candidates ensured. What are some of the ways where qualified candidates can meet with visionary CEOs and boards that already realize the value of diversity, and who are willing to stick their necks out to actively sponsor rather than simply mentor likely women candidates? What are the incentives that can enable women already in the senior management track to bring other qualified women into the conversation for the overall benefit of the organization? Can the creation of an gender-advocacy based institutional framework with an electronic-supported marketplace help?

For this, my experience is that there is still quite an extraordinary lack of structured but accessible programs to help a professionally qualified and experienced woman leader to position herself ideally for a board seat on a corporate or non-profit board of directors in India or Asia. There are the usualboard-readiness skill development programs hosted by universities. However, there is a felt need for a real (and virtual!) “marketplace” aimed atwomen practitioners – which could be hosted by gender advocacyorganizations – to help facilitate networking among potential board members as well as Asian companies that need them.

Such a program would include features that are now so common in foundation-driven innovation/ entrepreneurship development programs -at least in this country-but not usually seen in initiatives for enabling women to become leaders of corporate boards. So, one-on-one mentoring with a corporate director, comprehensive assessment to evaluate experience/expertise needed,creation and dissemination of resources to aid personal development,training workshops in subject-specific areas to fill in identified gaps in experience, and targeted, invitation-only leadership circles to provide group coaching could help drive up the participation level of women in senior management and corporate boards. And  monthly networking events, where leading female (and male) leaders who are already on boards of companies and non-profit organizations like hospitals, universities, foundations, etc. of varying size and level, and known for actively sponsoring brilliant women candidates, are invited to speak to the local membership base – thereby enabling them to develop support networks to take their quest forward. Ultimately, job board and matching services could be set up to successfully place the scores ofcapable, willing and high-energy IIM / Ivy league-educated women in Singapore who have successfully completed this program, onto boards in Asia that need their expertise and involvement. The vision of such a program would typically aim to place at least 3 women on each board (or at least, start with 1!), and every female board member replacing herself with another woman.

Most importantly, not to exclude men from these discussions. There are ample numbers of “He – for – She’s” out there in the corporate world as well as the non-profit world. Indeed, my own husband as well as ample number of my colleagues have been sterling examples of this- visibly promoting and actively mentoring meritorious women (as well as men) into senior management positions  without bias.

So is it too dealistic? But in the world of electronic market places and social networks for almost anything, could this be an idea whose time has come?

 

• Board Of Directors
• Diversity Recruitment
• Governance

Can Digital Innovation alter our lifespan?

Nov 7, 2015

From media and entertainment to hospitality and retail, senior management in most organizations are by turns concerned and exultant about disruptive innovation of digitization, and its power to uproot services, and whole industries everywhere. While some industries like oil & gas and infrastructure often have a perception of relative immunity, believing that high barriers such as capital costs, regulatory roadblocks or complexity of business processes will protect them from disruptive tech-led competitors – still, thinking strategically about thetransformational power of technology is important as digitization seems to be enabling a veritable dance of Life in most industries. Almost akin to Shiva’s Tandava Nritya  – constantly creating, maintaining and destroying the world in a dance set to the beat and rhythm of creation itself.

Synthetic Biology.

Although the potential for disruptive digital innovation is significant in a variety of industries, one area I had not quite appreciated before was the extent of its potential in segments like healthcare! It was fascinating therefore to meet Dr. Feng Zhang, a scientist whose work in digital health is doing what 3D printing is to industrial manufacturing, or what  open source Linux did to computing- and bringing with it the exponential power to change the world of health as we know it.

Genomic editing means any gene in the human body can be directly modified -which leads to an ability to turn on and off or edit disease-causing genes.  Technological revolution has enabled research like Dr. Zhang’s in synthetic biology, or genetic engineering gone digital. Sequencing the first human genome cost $3 bn in and took 13 years to do in 1990, but faster computers and better access to data have meant that reading a human genome is now achievable at $1000 and takes just a few hours. His team is now leading the race to manipulate DNA with computers, using programs that mix and match genetic code to create a whole new genomic sequence, and then – hold your breath – open source this technology to the world so that essentially anyone can have a creatively modified genetic framework, as they wish. In other words, we would soon get the technology to edit, cut, paste our defective genes as if they were paragraphs in a Microsoft Word document- so scientists can seamlessly and efficiently “read the poetry” of the individual human genome, detect the defective “word within the overall sentence”, and then at low cost, grow new personalized molecules in the laboratory that can later be introduced into the patient’s body. These would infiltrate into the cell, identify where the defective word actually is located, snip it off, and then introduce the new and intact gene- thereby, magically curing seemingly incurable genetic diseases.

Creating a new class of transformative genomic medicines to treat a broad range of diseases, by enabling precise and corrective molecular modifications at the genetic level, is the low-hanging fruit to this wonderland. Dreaded genetically marked diseases could be curable – from crippling scoliosis to hemophilia to even such cases as the mutation of the BRCA1 gene that led Angelina Jolie to go in for a double mastectomy.  And indeed, with soon a crowdsourced ability to ultimately co-opt the whole machinery of life to produce a creatively programmed, whole new mammalian life form.

Transformative Power of Digital Technology.

Although there are several huge ethical, moral, regulatory and framework questions to be resolved, from what I heard today it certainly seems like the gene-editing technology at least is a real possibility within as few as the next 2- 3 years.  And it affects not just medicines. New fuels, foods, construction materials, clothing or anything at all that we now manufacture industrially, can one day be able to assemble biologically. Scary thought for me who is leery even about GMO foods- but then, perhaps scientific progress cannot be stopped, only contained and regulated and ultimately democratized to minimize its negative risks. But this post is not about the moral dilemma, but the technological trends that have made this type of exponential change possible in the first place.

Many of us who, growing up in a linear world when everything seemed slower and  more predictable, may find it hard to make sense of this exponential disruption. What has enabled such rapid innovation in all these diverse fields at this time? And what is the likely future progress of these innovations? Are expectations overblown? Having a mental model of this could perhaps help us get a better sense of what is going on, and even enable us to convert what seem like bewildering threats into exciting opportunities. In this, three factors are important to consider:

i) Synchronicity of Trends.

One causative factor is that several concurrent and sweeping trends, self-reinforcing and mutually-empowering. have created this perfect storm – and powered the exponential digital technologies that enable the scale of this disruption. The mass adoption of mobile technology & smartphone-based internet connectivity; the availability of infinite, brute computing power of an IBM Watson or its equivalent; the leaps in artificial/ machine intelligence that can now give human-like inferential power to robots and computers alike; the spread of a million networked sensors across grids and smart devices everywhere, combined with the phenomenal rise of cloud computing – bring the power to create global marketplaces that anyone can access. And the power of technology to send data, expertise and finance traveling like lightning around the globe has led to ability to make things happen in vastly compressed time-frames.

So, while this technology itself of repairing genes has been around for a few years already, ever since the human genome has been mapped, the scale of this revolution has happened because of the combined effect of these exponential technological factors in the last few years. Large scale computing power (to read the billions of genetic combinations and identify faulty ones); the artificial machine intelligence to efficiently find patterns, and zero in on the defective gene rather than having to go line by line reading everything; the internet connectivity which enables simultaneously working around the world on a million different genetic health problems and learning from each other as well; and the ability to generate this in a platform way, at low cost that allows virtually anyone to get their genetic code read, and applications developed to solve these issues, through the use of technology.

ii) Lifecycle of Exponential Technologies.

It appears that these disruptive technologies have a predictable pattern to their adoption –  not linear, but an exponential one. As the work of Dr. Steven Kotler put it elegantly – the 6Ds of exponentials means that the idea starts with Digitalization, that makes progress cumulative; but thenDeception is a period where exponential growth goes mostly unnoticed (as e-commerce was 10 years ago, look at it now); followed by Disruption which happens where an innovation creates a new market and disrupts an existing one in a very bold and visible way; but thereafter, Demonetization and removal of money itself from the equation (from digital photos being shared for free to the information-for-free business model, in parallel with paid); then Dematerialization (which means pure digital distribution is enough- do we even miss those printed photographs nowadays?) finally Democratization (when hard costs drop so low that they are affordable and available to just about everyone). Perhaps this is also the future for digital health.

iii) Speed of disruption across industries.

Retail banks are just getting used to the fact that fin-techs nipping at their heels are already taking a sizeable bite out of their payments pie. Corporate banks may well find their capital markets as well as their lending businesses increasingly challenged through direct access to investors via crowdfunding and P2P lending. Doctors, confronted by virtual-health sites like Maven, Doctor on Demand who can set up video interviews for patients from their living room, will inevitably see dents in the comfortable income stream from their coughs-and-colds-and-flu clientele. And the rise of 3D printers and their additive (rather than subtractive technology of all manufacturing till date) means that the manufacturing is not far behind. This force is now threatening to irrevocably change globalization as we know it.  After all, why should I ship out my production to my supplier halfway around the world if I can just print out as complex or highly engineered a manufactured product as I need, at the low cost I have got used to, in my own backyard?

In the end, it remains to be seen as to what industry, if any, is sheltered from these society-stirring, power-structure-changing, disruptive but ultimately consumer-enabling forces. In particular, coming back to Dr. Zhang’s work – bringing the cost of personalized design and manufacturing down, and innovating new business models where everyone can get access to their very own lab, is one of the most exciting developments in digital health, that may ultimately pave the way for everyone to tailor their own genes (pun intended!) If genomic sequencing is already available for $1000, and the transformative genetic medicine is not far behind, could we expect that making 100 years the new 60 will soon be within everyone’s reach?

Intelligent mobility: Reimagining Urban Transport and Finance in our Cities

This week has been awash with distressing situations of a highly polluted smog-laden Beijing, and a flooded Chennai; with no solution to this imbroglio on the horizon. Meanwhile, pressure on maintaining an adequate, functional transport system within most cities in Asia is growing as urban areas expand and population numbers increase. In fact, most of our cities are now at a tipping point, facing challenges in that fundamental rite of urban living – getting around. But it does not have to be this way!

With rapid urbanization becoming the norm everywhere in Asia, livability/ walkability, aesthetics/ culture and other criteria could appear as luxuries that only rich western cities can aspire to. However, these, along with weather/ cost of living/ security are metrics which globally mobile corporations and investors, as well as citizens, would  weigh when deciding as to which city to live, work and play in.Naturally therefore, far-thinking city planners also aspire to these ideals when trying to maximize the attractiveness of their city.

In this respect, a recent survey by the Metropolitan ranks Singapore 11th among global cities, and not surprisingly, not a single Indian or Chinese city features on it- so far. (http://bit.ly/1ONw0QC).

How on earth can this be achievable in context of our Indian cities like Bombay, Kolkata, Bangalore? Reality is very different from the beautiful pictures on the Incredible India campaigns! Can we even afford it? Or will this at best remain a distant dream?

Making a city livable

In essential terms, I feel that the best way to measure and compare cities is to track how often can its citizens reliably and excellently, complete each of their daily transactions with minimum friction; but also have, relatively frequently, the “serendipitous interactions” that delight and excite us to the many myriad possibilities of life! The design of the city should strive to maximize economic opportunities for all, but also promote the cultural and aesthetic while being environmentally and socially sustainable. The context of each city is entirely different- and so the solutions would be equally diverse. But seen from this lens, one thing that is common to all is that the performance indicators to strive for, as well as the very mindset that policy makers would seek to inculcate in the long term (through policy making or propaganda), change dramatically. Ensuring personal mobility – frequent, affordable and short trips, on demand and as convenient, safe and reliable as possible, despite hugely exaggerated city densities – become an imperative; while keeping the environmental (carbon) footprint as miniscule as possible. So, it is really time to ditch our love affair with the car. Like smoking, unlimited car rides is a luxury that the planet can ill afford. And planners and policy makers have to enable this transformation by fundamental shift in the car-centric design of our cities.

Mobility Oriented Development – a new Paradigm

In this context, I recently delivered an address at a regional seminar focused on mobility oriented development, on options and structures for innovative financing of the vast infrastructure assets (from asset monetization and securitization to project bonds, to effective designs for sustainable public private partnerships) – that are particularly applicable to the ambitious infrastructure and transport projects in our region.  Innovative finance does not mean financial engineering! Instead, a fundamentally different approach to the whole transportation conundrum by society as a whole, from the car-centric approaches of today. I will outline here, very simply and with minimum jargon, some key principles to make this mode of development a reality in our highly populated Asian cities of the future. I would argue that this is not a luxury to be restricted only to the wealthy cities of the world, but a very necessity to maintain life as we know it.

To the uninitiated, transit oriented development simply means designing a city by orienting it around the High Speed Rail or Metro Station network – in such a manner that people  will be encouraged to give up their car-centric ways of living, and instead rely on efficient, low-environmental-impact, human-scale ways to transport themselves around their city. I attach here a view of Melbourne from my room on a recent trip, but many cities in South East Asia are now contemplating to get converted to this concept and design. Basic principles are that walking, cycling and mass-transit are prioritized as ways of transport- and intense connectivity of streets and paths are promoted. Buildings would be designed for mixed-use – so commercial, residential and office spaces are intermingled, and density is so much higher around the transit nodes (with affordable housing being a key part of the design mix) that it creates compact regions and pushes the less dense regions to the periphery. Meanwhile, mobility of all citizens is increased with short commutes for the majority of the population; and land space in urban city center for car parking and road use by personal vehicles is kept to the minimum. Optimal use of modern technological advances would involve smarter, greener,more efficient transportation infrastructure – ranging from use of Uber, to autonomous vehicles like driverless trains, seamless multi-modal forms of transport, and use of new and emerging technologies. Clearly, this is easier to accomplish when creating a whole new city from scratch, but it can be done in redeveloping an old city as well, provided the principles of heritage conservation, eco-sustainability and intelligent management can be upheld. Accompanying all this on the supply side, would be newly instituted economic incentives and regulatory measures to support this behavior change. Measures such as traffic congestion charges, certificates of entitlement penalizing car ownership, and demand management measures will aim to restrict car usage and thereby also support these changed behaviors.

In this, a salutary reminder to our planners that innovation need not be the preserve of a few- is the case of cities like Medellin in Colombia. This city which also featured on the Metropolitan’s list, is known for having successfully upgraded the urban environment of poor communities through creating public spaces,  and promoting connectivity through use of cable cars – to provide mobility for residents residing in slum areas.

 

Innovatively Financed infrastructure

An interesting side effect of this new mode of thinking, is the impact it could have on financeability of new urban high speed rail projects. If designed right, private developers could be inveigled into financing a large proportion of the infrastructure requirement, in return for relaxation in the allowable FARs (floor area ratios, or other densification criteria) in the radius of land around the railway station – which can lead to substantial profits. In fact, commercial exploitation of the real estate (offices, shops, commercial establishments, and high-end residential condominiums) can also throw off cash-flows to the developer that in turn can be harnessed to subsidize redevelopment and construction of affordable housing in the peripheral areas around the urban core- provided a transparent bidding and procurement exercise can be ensured. This model, called the Hong Kong Land Value Capture model in this part of the world, can be appropriately modified to suit the particular institutional structures and socio-political realities of cities in many of the developing urban centres of our cities in Asia. Again and again we see the underlying principles at work in the great cities of the world- from Melbourne to San Francisco to Osaka to Singapore to Oxford in the UK- but no better time than now to adapt these to the situation of our Asian and Indian cities!

Appropriately enough, soon after we got the opportunity to listen to the Indian Railway minister, Mr. Suresh Prabhu and thereafter PM Modi in Singapore as they outlined for investors some notable aspects of the new scheme to revitalize the Indian Railways. This purports to involve redevelopment of 100+ stations across India and expected to become one of the largest PPP projects in the world.  In fact, in terms of design this is very modern thinking – and ties in well with the other initiatives announced by India in recent days, such as  100 smart cities- which presumably will include all the dimensions of smart cities (from smart energy/water/waste/ transport to smart e-governance and  social services) to concurrent initiatives such as Digital India, Start-up India and Clean India. However, it remains to be seen whether these undoubtedly ground-breaking initiatives can take off in face of the many challenges that governance in India presents! But if this can be done, it would be a feat unparalleled in history – for  a developing nation with such a large, democratic, highly fractious populace- to do so much with so little. We can only hope that the strengths that India presents, with a highly innovative, educated workforce, ability to leverage favorable technological trends and a significant advantageous demographic dividend, can overcome these hurdles to triumph at last. From such a development, the world can only benefit.