Musings … during Covid-19 crisis

The recent spate of communications around the Covid-19 onslaught brings to mind the old saw: “Never waste a good crisis.”

While we all – as individuals, as a community, a society, a global village- scramble to ascertain how best can we stay safe today, support our community, recover as fast as possible and be resilient…. equally, it is time for some long term strategic thinking resets. In what way may we re-orient ourselves so that we are better prepared for future disruptions?

One interesting article on this front is https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/where-next-patterns-randomness-our-shared-future-david-mattin/. Getting together a collective of people who want to deliberate on the dimensions and ramifications is certainly a good idea to start it off: as we all need to join in, to positively influence our shared future.

In fact – this above thinking is not new. The ancient Sanskrit concept of Vasudaivah Kutumbakam- which is ingrained in us from when we were very young, in many Indian families- was essentially, that the whole world is one family. It may be now time to update/ rephrase it to appeal to today’s generation but the principles are timeless: http://vasudhaiva-kutumbakam.org/about-us/who-we-are/.

And as Shylock echoes, in Shakespeare’s “Merchant of Venice”:

I am a Jew: Hath not a Jew eyes? hath not a Jew hands, organs, dimensions, senses, affections, passions? fed with die same food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases, healed by the same means, warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer, as a Christian is?

But in what other ways might we expect that this can get reflected in our daily thinking and habits?

• Revere the earth more – be more deliberate and intentional in every way and every day, about the resources we use, and the renewal we initiate
• Be more thankful for every breath we take; and respect human, animal and plant kingdom, for all Life is Beautiful
• Value, patronise and protect local solutions – and the beauty of small, artisanal products – rather than always opting for large scale, mass-manufactured global products and services from afar

If we don’t heed this call, it will be too late, as Tom Lehrer sings so evocatively:

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&p=tom+lehrer#id=8&vid=bdf42ba21ebac16b44c0580dd618e39c&action=click

As then, we will all go together when we go!

If you are looking for a more positive way to look at it, recall Kafka’s famous statement to the little girl who lost her doll – “Everything you love will probably be lost, but in the end, love will return in another way.”

Certainly hope it will not come to that!

To the graduating class of 2017… a new generation of leaders

Published on May 17, 2017

It was a wonderful sunny morning in May when we visited the campus of one of the greatest business schools in the world.

In beautiful Philadelphia on a warm summer morning, we heard from the keynote commencement speaker, Yuri Milner, founder of DST Global. Named in the sixties for Yuri Gagarin, he’s a Russian billionaire and he spoke inspiringly about the power of science to give a new vantage point for humanity. He’s lived his own doctrine so his message was pretty compelling. Perhaps many of us had never heard of him before- but it seems he’s an understated but effective leader and innovator, both in the sciences and in business. An alumnus from the early 1990s, he went on to become a prominent technology investor and science philanthropist globally – starting one of Europe’s leading Internet companies which went public in 2010, and then founding DST Global (an early investor in worldwide Internet investments incl. facebook, WhatsApp, Snapchat, Airbnb, Alibaba).

Echoing the venerable founder of the University Benjamin Franklin, (when someone asked “What’s the use of it?” on watching the first air balloons rise over the skies of San Francisco in 1783: he famously replied “What’s the use of a new born baby?”) – Mr. Milner’s message to the class of 2017 was that the frontiers of science offers up a new vantage point like never before – and that we can exploit this for the greater good of humankind. In today’s technology driven era, his was an important message. He was followed by two student speakers – one who exhorted his classmates quite poetically to “get off the wait-list” and lose no time in engaging with the world, and the other who reminded her class that business degree is now a license to make profits but also to govern with impact (and a lightly veiled reference to the US presidency).

Now, there is no doubt that many in the Millenial generation are quite preoccupied with leading a life of impact and generosity. In fact we, and every generation before us, has had (and have) similar “big” dreams and aspirations too. However this time round, ideas and beliefs are turbocharged by the power of the Internet – to inspire as well as horrify. Inspiring stories travel round the world at lightning speed, as does the news in one corner of the world to an audience in the other end. The challenge by far is to sustain that dream in the face of immense complexity, for leading the community and society onto lasting positive change. In some ways, it’s never been easier. But in so many other ways, it’s never been harder.

So to these laudable thoughts, I have just three more to add – to the graduating class of 2017 here and everywhere. You are the leaders of tomorrow. So do look at colonizing space, do consider how to manufacture human organs and to sustain life beyond 100, and all those areas that seek to push the limits of human endeavor as never before. However, look also at cleaning up our behaviors– reducing our environmental footprint, and treading lightly on the wondrous things God has given us, whether it is the beauty of nature or our human brain. Otherwise all we will have succeeded in doing is to convert from our beautiful planet laid waste to an entire cosmos laid waste.

In this, what we do everyday matters more than what we do once in a while. A simple example is when I noticed that disposable coffee filters are now replaced by disposable coffee makers– populating so many hotel rooms, adding with gay abandon to that mountain of waste in the landfill. And this, when in most parts of the world, the “Keep Cup” movement is gaining traction- where we can bring our own coffee cup to take a refill at the machine. Definitely need to make progress on these fronts!

And finally- while it is important to dream big, look far beyond the horizon, and newer frontiers- small is also beautiful. In this, look first into your immediate neighborhood. Reminding ourselves of the powerful words of Daiseku Ikeda- when young people are determined to illuminate the corner of the world they live in now, they can create a secure space in which people can regain hope and the power to live. And these tiny miracles can rapidly replicate – the tools for this have never been better than now.

The future’s not something to be predicted, rather something to be achieved. And its the collective responsibility of all of us, dear young leaders of the next generation, that it’s a good one.

So- dear young graduates- congratulations on your wonderful achievement. Our best wishes are with you for your continued success. On to better and more amazing endeavors! The world is watching.

Transport & Logistics in India- and translating “less” to “more”

Published on May 2, 2017

When Hon. Indian Minister for Transport and Highways, Shri. Nitin Gadkari came to Singapore last week to invite investor interest (from financial as well as Singapore infra firms) into India’s highways and logistics sector, much attention was paid to India’s ambitious plan to spend trillions of $ on ramping up construction of 100’s of 1000s of highways and acres and acres of logistics parks. (Already having the second largest road network in the world, India is adding 20 Km/day of highways and the total length already is >200% the circumference of the earth.) However, although this would undoubtedly be of interest to many investors, I believe that there is still a gap: in terms of efforts to promote sustainability of transport solutions, and for investigating the potential of increasingly digital economy that can impact such design.

What’s good: On the one hand, the demands in India are staggering in their scale and magnitude. And if at last, investment is being accelerated to meet the woeful shortfall, it is necessary and timely. Considering the appalling safety record, the tremendous congestion and the huge demands of an exploding population on a creaking infrastructure- who would argue with the fact that investment is sorely needed?

In this, it is good that India is seeking to remove roadblocks to investment, and the new mindset to innovate is encouraging. Ex: a detailed policy is being put in place to get more investment into multi-modal logistics parks; ways and means are being explored to unlock the transport potential of inland waterways; and there is a move towards a hub-and-spoke framework instead of point-to-point transportation.

Areas that need greater attention: I feel that even more needs to be done if the goal of sustainable development is to be achieved in an equitable and efficient manner. In particular, by considering the possibilities unleashed by digital.

a) Sustainability: As is well known, the contribution to emissions from transport sector is significant. In the wake of the Paris accord, globally leading companies and industries are scrambling (or should be) to explore how to lessen the industry’s footprint and reduce its CO2 emissions, and its attendant contribution to air pollution and waste. So dealing with ever increasing traffic demand, congestion, pollution cannot be simply addressed by building ever more highways and logistics parks – without a huge detrimental and irreversible effect on the environment.

b) Stranded Assets: Technological change can also create stranded assets:

• In a world where additive manufacturing (such as 3 D printing) is up-ending our conventional approach to economic as well as transport planning and logistics, this question is ever more urgent. If the customer is better served by having customized designs printed off at his location on demand, would there still be need to locate those huge centralized production facilities for end-products like toys and shoes in low-wage locations, thereafter to be shipped halfway across the world?
• Added to which is the fact that automation is threatening livelihoods in industries from manufacturing to retail to agriculture- not restricted to “developed” economies alone, but worldwide. So would there still be those huge armies of workers trundling from one part of the country to the other in pursuit of their employment goals, or instead a far more “distributed” future of work and the infrastructure that goes with it?
• Not to mention, distributed ledger technologies such as blockchain – implying perhaps a future where a data stream can help reduce need for a stream of trucks! Can India afford to ignore the implications of these developments when planning infrastructure for the next 30 years?

c) Reconciling these opposing needs, for growth with sustainability, through digital: When we think of the future of logistics sector in India -my own view is that the future is not only about building big and bold mega-structures. Rather, the amazing technological advancements of the last decades have given rise to possibilities of nnovation that minimize effects on the environment – so long term sustainable solutions is the need of the hour.

Potential for technology driven change in transportation to enable sustainability:Experience is already showing that shared logistics capabilities can increase asset utilization – and so powered by digital, transport planners and policy-makers can find better ways to turbocharge the provision of mobility options to goods and people without shooting the environment. Rebuilding infrastructure also requires incorporating desirables such as sidewalks for personal mobility vehicles and bicycles- so that at miniscule additional cost, we can alleviate traffic as well as promote health! Of course, these need to be supplemented by methods such as adoption of coordinated and integrated planning for land use, transit oriented design that discourages car-dependent sprawl, use of demand management techniques (as in the case of Singapore’s ERP), reduction of fuel subsidies, and policies that foster changes in travel behavior. Can India juxtapose these contrasting considerations to create new sharing business models – and perhaps even use platform technologies to enable leapfrogging of highway and logistics development in such a way that “less is more”?

For investigating this line of thinking, a clear digital strategy which is integrated into business strategy will be critical. I raised this point during the interaction session to the minister, to which he replied that the government would certainly welcome receiving transformative ideas.

India is deep and richly entrepreneurial, with multiple initiatives afoot at any given time. And already, initiatives such as Aadhar with its unprecedented reach (where > 90% of Indian citizens are now connected on the Unique ID project) and similar initiatives linked to the industrial internet (ex: uniform GST is being rolled out accompanied by technology such as RFID devices which will soon be able to track the movement of every lorry, bus and truck across tollgates and the very length and breadth of India)- are making the world sit up and notice. Also the “Make-In-India” campaign as well as others such as “Digital India”, “Start-Up India” and “Clean India” movement, can be expected to incorporate recent technology developments in working out their estimates. But the critical challenge for the leadership right now is to keep an eye on the rapidly evolving forest – while also planting the trees.

All in all- life is changing much faster than anyone had ever imagined could be possible. Considering this, focus should be on investing in infrastructure that supports both competitiveness and environmental sustainability of the nation, but also taking care to incorporate the latest advances in technology into integrated transportation, land use and economic development plans that will serve projected growth over the next several decades. Policy makers need to work closely with the business community as well as the non-profit sector and citizenry alike, to allow the economy to capture the gains of technology while meeting the needs of the population at large. Hope this will be achievable for the sake of all of us. The future of our planet depends on it.

Dark Side of the Tech Revolution: Ethics of the 1% Economy

Came across this an alarming but important book called “The Internet is NOT the Answer” (2015) by Andrew Keen, a well known commentator based in Silicon Valley. Written by an industry veteran- it is obviously a ringside view, and buttressed by extensive and credible references. This, and others like this, bring to mind three basic issues with the internet based economy as it is evolving today:

• First basic issue – which people can see and are protesting – is Privacy
• But the larger issue – is that the human mind is being influenced by a few who control the platforms (like Facebook and Google) – and as yet, people haven’t yet started to realize the impact this is having.
• And all this is leading to a future issue, which is going to dwarf everything else. Even those who think that they are in control, will get swamped by the speed of evolution of machine learning. It’s not just science fiction any more- but within the realms of possibility and even probability that one day, artificial intelligence starts to control human intelligence. Bulwarks have to be put in place now.

Piques your interest? You have to read the book, but some interesting takeaways below.

The book starts out describing what we know already. As is by now familiar – in the space of one generation, the digital world and the networked society is reshaping employment, identity, privacy, prosperity justice, civility at breakneck speed. In some of my previous posts, I referred to some amazing possibilities that it has unleashed. Can Disruptive Innovation Alter Our Life Span? and Artificial Intelligence and its impact on Jobs and Society, or even The Thrill and Danger of Smart Cities -for example. But this book describes how Internet, rather than being a win-win as it set out to be, has grown to now become a negative feedback loop – and where we, the network users, are its victims rather than beneficiaries. First we shape our tools, and then our tools shape us!

We are all quite inured now to the reality where majority of us beaver away doing unpaid shadow work – and uploading our data on a voluntary basis- (beguiled by the promise of “free”!). But the privacy issues that these new internet business models so gleefully espouse, boggles the mind. Meanwhile, all this goes to enrich a privileged few in an ever more “winner takes all” top-heavy manner, creating powerful new monopolies, while laying waste to venerable institutions and changing the structure of entire industries and (through automation and AI) leading to mass unemployment. Because, in fact, these “free” social networks are accelerating even more the distribution of unlicensed content- while Silicon Valley continues to be the biggest beneficiary of the Maker revolution, at the expense of the “makers”. To top it all, this new “data-based economy” is enabling all-pervasive mass surveillance of every citizen collectively and individually, permanent and relentless…while the tech monopolists themselves are subject to very little regulation or scrutiny, if at all. Akin to the postmaster being privy to the contents of our letters just because of delivering it! So far, we have trusted in self-governance and the promise of “Do No Evil” credo informing their every action. But can this last without more active engagement by citizenry themselves?

The book is a bit thin on solutions to the imbroglio, even in the last chapter entitled “the Answer”. But there is ample reference to more reading material and to the authors and thinkers who are lined up on either side of this polarizing debate. There are limits to self-regulation, after all, and the policy of “doing no evil” works better when the scale is small and the numbers are miniscule. And as the saying goes, power does tend to corrupt; and absolute power can corrupt absolutely.

Some tech evangelists may view Mr. Keen as a shrill polemic and a “controversial” writer. But refreshingly- rather than being a dry tome- his writing is very readable by the lay public. Chapters have pithy, striking headings, building up to the main point in a nice sequence – such as “The Catastrophe of Abundance”; “Crystal Man”; “Epic Fail”. There’s vivid imagery, where the Internet ecosystem is compared to the setting in Tolkien’s book “The Lord of the Rings”; powerful tech oligarchs set up massive fortresses and moats to shut out the majority, a weary populace of serfs. There’s also comparison with the hierarchical social structure prevalent in the TV series “Downton Abbey”- but with today’s tech elite in Silicon Valley having all of the perks but few of the traditional values of the aristocracy; social hierarchies without social constraints; and massive rewards without accompanying responsibility. However the main importance of books like this is in the questions they raise.

And to my mind, this topic is all the more urgent because Artificial Intelligence is making such giant leaps that it is now actually possible, in our lifetimes, that machine will overtake man in every thing that is important for life itself. Meanwhile there is really no universally agreed “manifesto” or code of ethics or framework to guide developers and practitioners alike. No “Wealth and Poverty of Nations” or “Das Kapital” or “Bible” or “Bhagavad Gita” to provide guidance or theoretical framework. The book doesn’t mention it, but one wonders if any efforts are underway to develop this – that too in an open source way? In contrast, so far many tech writers are predicting the likely parameters of a Life after the Robot Apocalypse.

External controls don’t always have to stem from government action and there is a place for self-regulation. So, rather than an Internet Bill of Rights, time to cobble together an Internet Bill of Responsibilities that establishes a new social contract for every member of a networked society? Rebuttals to these charges can be sought from the lead recipients of the tech bonanza, who are currently “secretive corporations as yet largely unaccountable to the public”. But it is crucial that innovation in policy, regulation, and social governance have to accompany the technological advancement. Researchers have to start cobbling together a framework that offers a structured way of countering these effects with a robust and institutionalized methodology. And things like competition law, breakup of monopolies, imposition of Chinese walls etc remain as important as ever. At any rate laissez-faire won’t cut it any longer.

All in all- a topic worth debating and thinking though. There’s obviously two sides to every debate – and we hope for all our collective sake that things will work out well, as we’d hate to lose the powerful tools we have by now gotten so used to. Otherwise, as a society we might find ourselves like the proverbial Brahmin of legend, who rode a tiger but could not figure out how to get off – without getting eaten for its lunch! And that would be such a shame indeed.

PS: A few other authors he lists – could be worth reading:

• Chrystia Freeland, author of “Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else (2012)”
• William Powers, author of “Hamlet’s Blackberry- A Practical Philosophy for building a good life in the Digital Age” (2010)
• Internet historians, sociologists and commentators like Mathew Ingram of GigaOm; Richard Sennett; John Naughton; Rebecca Solnit; Brad Stone

And although I read this book in hard copy, through the power of the Internet (:-)) I discovered that this may pair well with several other new books as well:

• Culture Crash: The Killing of the Creative Class
• Dragnet Nation: A Quest for Privacy, Security and Freedom in a World of Relentless Surveillance
• The Shallows: What the Internet is Doing to our Brains- by Nicholas Carr
• Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business
• Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
• 

Mindfulness@Work

Yesterday I went to a seminar/workshop on Mindfulness for leaders- which aimed to adapt techniques from positive psychology and neuroscience to enable real habit change for leaders in the business world. The training was also supposed to be more experiential than instructional, but really requires participants to come with a different mindset to this workshop than the one we take to our regular workday.

Some of my notes from the workshop:

Mindfulness movement is increasingly gaining acceptance as a must-have leadership habit – of relevance to business leaders in companies as varied as Google to Blackrock – and a therapeutic exercise that we should make time for in our routine. Truly a “super-power” that can unlock deep capabilities and insights we never knew we had- it is available to each and every one of us if we are willing to just reach out and grasp it. In fact, the benefits in terms of stress reduction, attention enhancement, team results and their ability to build meaningful relationships with self confidence etc. are just now being recognized. Soon, mindfulness habit will be considered by all of us to be as essential to our routine as brushing our teeth, going for a run, or eating healthy- and we will feel guilty if we have not made space for that in our day, that day! But like anything else, it takes intention, attention and practice.

The findings about the benefits of meditation are borne out from neuroscience, where brain scans and other studies have proven that monks who meditate daily were better and faster able to bounce back from shocks (becoming more resilient). In fact the cortical thickness gets rewired – enhancing our capability to be ‘response-able” rather than reactive, and in general being able to process the negative things that happen to us. And instead of a large part of our existence being on “auto-pilot” or being hijacked by our emotions – we are able to rewire ourselves to enjoy a better and more grounded existence in the time that we have on this planet. In other words, being able to “feel the pain but not making it our suffering”.

The tools for enhancing mindfulness are varied. We practiced some of them.

One technique which really works for me is journaling, but we have to take care to do it with pen and paper, not a computer mouse. The hand-mind-body connection is vital to making that “muscle memory” and enables us to get a clear, clean and focused look at our inner world. Also, what you get out of the exercise is really enhanced by the quality of the prompts you use to kick off the process. For instance, she initially made us use prompts such as “When I feel understood, I…” or “When I’m at my best, I….” or “What I really care about is…” to start us off. But ideal to collect prompts to use to explore our inner self during that quiet moment that we take at a fixed time in the day, every day. This is also supposed to enable our abilities in terms of meta-attention- or paying attention to where we are paying attention.

Another technique we practiced was when we had our lunch- as at every meal we are supposed to savor and eat with attention to texture, taste and feelings that come up- thereby enhancing our enjoyment but reducing the amount we eat! A third was something that I have also done during my (infrequent) yoga or guided meditation sessions- focus on the breath. But there are many variations. Another technique to try is to walk with mindfulness, noticing the intricate details of where we are – the scents, the colours, the sounds, the temperature and what is unique about the situation, or what is happening in the moment.

Meditation is different from mindfulness. So, being mindful and in the present moment- is something that enables us to extract the maximum joy out of our existence. Instead of focusing our thoughts on the minor irritants – which can consume our attention to the exclusion of everything else- we can focus on the rest and put everything back into context. In other words, put it in the background and not the foreground of our existence; rather than allowing it to distort our perspective, or giving the irritant greater importance than it deserves! This will enable us to cultivate the happiness habit.

Another thing that is important is the attitude that we bring to our work and our interactions with others. Leaders need to cultivate a habit of kindness and curiosity- rather than using for everything a judgmental and problem-solving approach! After all, each individual already has within himself or herself the resources to solve their own problems- and we can only facilitate their ability to reach inside themselves and access that. The only time that we can get into problem-solving, together with someone we care about, is with their permission. Rest of the time, active listening is all that is needed or going to work while they sort out their issue for themselves in the best way that is best for them in their circumstances. I think we do this already but it is good to be conscious about it. Noticing what people need for developing their own autonomy, mastery and purpose, and taking care to communicate with presence, clarity and credibility are the other aspects of this mindful leadership credo. As Janice Marturano rather nicely puts it- leaders have to explicitly develop habits to strengthen focus, clarity, creativity, and compassion- and as we begin training our minds to be as important as training our bodies, we begin to live our best life, that influences more often “for better” and less often “for worse”. In this, what we do every day is more important than what we do once in a while.

The other thing the workshop leader said about depression which was notable- was that most people’s usual reaction to dealing with the vicissitudes of life is binge-eating, TV watching, going down for a smoke, or other negative but self-reinforcing behaviors that only exacerbate the problem. So even if you are trying to help a colleague or co-worker who is feeling low- bring them out – try to get them to move! No point just saying “be strong” – so much easier said than done. Or if someone is in the grip of anger- wait for a different time to respond to them. If that angry person is you, best to take a deep breath, so that the pre-frontal cortex (the thinking, creative brain) has time to kick in rather than allowing your reactions to be hijacked by the amygdala or the animal brain.

There are also apps for enhancing mindfulness. Headspace is one that everybody is raving about. Happify.com is a resource for more. Authors such as Martin Seligman, Dan Siegel and others were cited as being worth exploring for further reading.

All in all, a thought provoking workshop!

Walkability as the new source of competitive advantage for cities

Walkability can be a financially savvy strategy! Research has shown that designing a city for Walkability yields benefits in terms of the environment, social cohesiveness, health benefits for an ageing society- but what is new is that it can also be an economically astute strategy. Knowledge workers want to live, work and play downtown, where they can raise families in healthy environments and maximize their creativity. Financing tools like value capture finance and yield cos can help engineer this change by providing a structure that will draw investors, corporations and private partners into the project in a cohesive way. This week, in Hong Kong’s Walk 21 conference, I had opportunity to describe some tools and frameworks that can be useful for doing this. But as I emphasized – there’s more to it than this.

While innovative financial tools and public private partnerships are important to make sure that the right infrastructure is implemented, social change needs more than a set of financial tools and techniques bolted on to a fundamentally warped way of thinking that doesn’t fit the new reality. In other words, engendering large-scale behavior change in our societies will also need a bottom-up, paradigm shift in mindsets. It’s such a waste of potential if the cities of developing Asia continue to be strangled by the self-serving, bureaucracy-led, corruption-ridden real estate development methods which have brought them to their present sad state of affairs. In this regard, a number of interesting case studies from cities around the world have shown how innovative design can help get us there, but also that the demand side of the equation also needs to be kept in check through innovative policy tools for weaning us away from dependence on the car. And for the future, cities from Beijing to Bangalore will have to embrace these new mindsets – as ease and convenience of mobility and liveability can be a key source of competitive advantage in the new globalization era. Meanwhile, globally the Climate Change agenda is real and people have begun to realize that it is urgent to address this for the very survival of the planet.

In this regard, it is particularly encouraging that new smart and responsive digital technologies – such as metered time-of-day pricing, to Blockchain for land registry, to Drone technology for routine maintenance, to Internet of Things – can help our cities to get there. In fact, in some countries the biggest power stations are now agglomerations of roof-top solar – and coal stations are on their way to becoming stranded assets! In this, the attitudes of the young people- millenials and beyond- are the most exciting to watch as they reject the mentality that has brought the planet to this condition. Young men and women are coming up with the most amazing solutions to foster in an equitable and enduring way, more efficient solutions for tomorrow. Indeed, some of the startups that we are seeing in this area are an everyday inspiration that things can and will be different. These technology, policy and design options are creating the compelling force that can lead us over the edge of the abyss- into a brave new world. Of zero-carbon cities, where technology serves the people and not the other way around. Where projects are designed not only to optimize on their project IRRs but also on their environmental and social IRRs. Where clean air, pedestrian-friendly streets, solar-powered public transport, and healthy communities networked into the greater region of which they are a part, and infused with the Kampung-spirit- is still possible in our mega-cities.

Of course- there are many risks to implementation, and success factors include having the ability to put together land banks, stable regulatory regimes and good investment climate where there is trust that projects will be bid out fairly; and very important to have demonstrated political will and leadership to make these come about. But what is encouraging, is that these principles need not be applicable only to the relatively well-planned, infrastructure-infused cities of the developed world. We have the fundamental bones of the structure of clustered communities, within our very own overpopulated, crowded, messy Asian cities- we just need to revive this in intelligent ways, and leapfrog development directly to meet this new agenda. In other words, create cities that are able to cherish the walkability that is their heritage, while nourishing them as the economic engines of growth for the country that they will have to remain – and thereby seek to assuage the tremendous ills of the industrial age, and transform into the new Efficient, Equitable and Enduring cities of tomorrow.

So this week’s Hong Kong Walk 21 was an innovative conference with a difference where far-thinking designers, architects, urban planners, engineers, policy makers, government departments got to discuss and interact with the young startups, the app-makers, the researchers, the health activists and the elder-care NGOs who support civil society in asking for change. To carry forward the momentum from this conference- quick wins, from social media campaigns to university and student-led research, to stock-market indices, to policy experiments, to consulting networks should be pursued so that more and more cities can be drawn into this – essentially a grounds-up citizens movement that demands and creates impetus for ensuring walkability in our cities. An inspirational weekend which made everyone feel that individuals can and will be able to make a change in these pressing issues of our time. I was glad to be a part of this – and we felt that we can look forward to being, in our own small way, the change that we wish to see in the world.

Mind the Gap – The Financing Conundrum in Transport Infrastructure

Last week, I had the pleasure of addressing and subsequently participating in a panel discussion at the 16th Asia Pacific UITP Assembly in Kuala Lumpur, on bringing long term investment into financing of transport infrastructure through innovative design and structuring. The speakers and panelists each shared from our own experiences on successful infrastructure finance – so we had case studies from Montreal, London, Hong Kong, New Delhi and Singapore, and cities as diverse as Bogota, Dubai and Bangalore.

Long term investment in public transport infrastructure is not only imperative for meeting the demand of the burgeoning urban population, but also a moral responsibility for sustainability. As the urbanization trend takes off in cities of Asia and around the world, ensuring inclusive green growth will be possible only when there is ubiquitous, equitable and efficient urban mobility and adequate public transport infrastructure and services. If the current mobility habits and obsession with private cars continues, the resulting urban congestion will gridlock cities, rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption.

But while the need for public transport infrastructure is well understood, the constrained public purse and the limited risk appetite of private investors and commercial banks makes the resulting financing gap an urgent issue to address. My presentation outlined some creative ways used by project financiers around the world to finance these capital-hungry projects – from value capture strategies to tax-advantaged structures to enhanced credit bonds. However, as policy makers are increasingly aware, financial engineering is not a silver bullet to bridge the gap for financing long term investment in infrastructure. Rather, sustainable design can serve to make this gap more bridgeable, by making modifications both on the demand and supply side; and supply side designs and financial structures can be put together in a way that resonates with developers and the private sector in promoting city liveability and overall city resilience.

Optimizing the match of sources of finance to characteristics of projects, and taking a programmatic approach, can lead to many more of these imperative infrastructure investments getting financed. As these are often income generating projects which can finally get financed from long term sources such as pension funds, such a win-win approach can serve to make explicit the direct transfer from those who pay for infrastructure (both tax payer and user) to the current and future generation of investors and pensioners/ retirees.

I concluded with a brief look about the likely impact of disruptive technologies in transport. On this last point- smart transport grids, Internet-of-Things, the connected autonomous car, as well as the sharing economy and similar innovations are already fundamentally changing the transportation landscape – but the best is yet to be. All in all, a fruitful and interesting set of discussions, to be taken up in more detail in future sessions!

Looking into the Future of Retail Banking – Digital Disruption in Financial Services

Last week, I was invited as a delegate to the Middle East Retail Banking Forum in Dubai. Now, this is not my usual beat- as I am very much a corporate/investment/ wholesale banking sort of gal. But the keynote speaker was Sanjoy Sen -and the topic was Digital Disruption in Banking. So this piqued my interest enough to make me invest a morning at the conference.

I was not disappointed- the presentation was comprehensive and elegant, and provided a fascinating look into the future of retail banking in the face of digital disruption. In particular, a way forward as to how banking services can incorporate the best of these technologies into their own business model to serve customers better.

Essentially, it was a presentation for banks and bankers, on how to fend off “uber”-isation of retail banking by using best practice from outside of banking. So, merely setting up corporate innovation labs is not nearly enough. Banks that can fundamentally alter their systems, processes and customer and talent management, and reengineer their business models to become as agile as the fintechs that are nibbling away at their turf, will win out in the end.

As my friend Deepak Mehra tweeted after the conference – Sanjoy presented, through a set of compelling case studies, a  glimpse of the future of retail banking as it goes digital. For more, see this link to Deepak’s article : “UBER-ISATION OF RETAIL BANKING” by Sanjoy Sen – and here below a 1 minute summary of the hour long keynote speech, as taken from my i-phone:

The Power and the Fear – Artificial Intelligence and its impact on Jobs and Society

The news has been awash with provocative articles about the future of jobs in our society. The exponentially advancing nature of Artificially Intelligent machines, after AlphaGo turned out to be a better Go player than any human – combined with the power of the collective mind,  makes it an urgent question to debate. There seems to be almost no job or field of endeavor that cannot be disrupted – from routine and manual jobs to non-routine and cognitive jobs, all are now at risk of being replaced by intelligent machines.

Simple example- the other day I saw a conscious robotic arm in the pharmacy of the hospital, which is already dispensing medicine packages more accurately, efficiently and in a more space-saving way than any human could possibly do.  This raises the question that maybe humans should let the work be done by machines after all- why fight it – we humans were meant for more higher pursuits anyway. Not as far fetched as it initially seems! And robot bartenders are already employed in ships, as the video clip shows: Robot Bartender on Cruise Ship

Machine vs. Man was never a fair fight. From cameras and telescopes to ships and airplanes and drones, to the newest generation of “thinking” computers- there are hardly any jobs that machines cannot do better than humans.In fact, recent advances in technology and networked intelligence can lead to massive changes in entire societies, in the space of less than a generation. For just a small instance, look merely at what Fitbit can accomplish through scale and peer-pressure – rippling through an entire population, changing habits and behaviors in a relatively short period of time- and compare this with the impact a Personal Trainer can have with one client in a long set of focused one-on-one interactions.

Clearly, this new age of Deep Learning machines will extend human capability to hitherto undreamed of proportions. Meanwhile, there will always be a need to feed the hungry, heal the sick and deal with disasters- and to share the spoils of technology upgrades in an equitable and sustainable manner. And undoubtedly, the human touch remains essential in a variety of fields, from communicating with the customer to meeting the needs of the aged and infirm, as we all want to talk to each other, NOT to machines. So, there would always remain an ocean of opportunity for those creative enough, and optimistic enough, while letting machines do the bulk of the drudge-work.

But there is no doubt that the very nature of the technological revolution, will add fewer jobs for the vast majority of the population, than it takes away. Therefore, in some Scandinavian countries, policy makers are looking into the feasibility of granting a “Universal Basic Income” unconditionally to each and every member of society to enable basic necessities, as a form of equitable distribution of the gains of technological progress- thereafter leaving everyone to get time to do exactly what they please. In other countries including Philippines and India, the Conditional Cash Transfer is a means-tested way of ensuring that the poorest people have a minimum income guaranteed to them, funded from the public budget, that ensure starvation is kept at bay.

On the face of it, this sounds like a very good idea worth exploring further. For instance, having an “unconditional basic income” guaranteed to all, can help protect citizens against many of the travails that people face today- forced mobility, destructive globalization and various other effects of the despotism of the market. In this idealized scenario, if everyone had a UBI, people can be free to choose to live in the ancestral village instead of becoming migrant workers. And the disadvantaged (in terms of illness, disability, personal misfortune etc.) need not feel stigmatized. Meanwhile, since this guarantees only a minimum level, it may at best blunt the hard edge of desperation a bit, but yet does not really hamper creative and ambitious individuals – as they can feel free to pursue power and pelf or even work for other parameters, such as social approbation, (likes!) etc. Literally, virtual rewards could replace money thereby providing incentive to work. Idealized Utopia? Or practically achievable and desirable in our lifetimes?

All in all- the advances in technology raise urgent philosophical, ethical and moral questions that policy makers and societies need to debate here and now. It is terribly important to make the right choices – as individuals, as communities, and as a society- because it is what we DO with these new tools of technological and social progress, that changes the arena completely. Will our new capabilities lead to the arena becoming a battlefield? Or will it be a peaceful park, with machines existing to further the development of Man and the good of the earth and all who are in it? Wisdom, maturity and wise, responsible leadership is needed, and awakened not just in the few but in every one of us in this “Wiki-world”.

But, to end on a happy and optimistic note: human resourcefulness and inventiveness has managed to keep our society flourishing thus far; and green shoots and islands of hope have succeeded in inspiring the rest of us to follow suit. As Snoopy puts it best:

Reference: Here are links to the interesting articles on Pulse that provoked my thoughts on these weighty matters:

Jobs are for Machines– Scott Santens

Career Strategies when Life isnt black or white – George Anders

Alpha Go vs. You: Not a Fair Fight – Shelly Palmer

And, needless to say, these are just my own views- I am not representing any of my previous or current employers.

Rewind…Fast Forward…Pause – The Thrill and the Danger of Smart Cities

Last week was an exciting one here in Singapore as some of the most innovative technical minds in the business came together at a Global  Innovation Summit to debate on a topic that’s making news nowadays- Smart Cities.

After an interesting two day summit where cutting edge technical solutions were presented, from Smart Buildings to Smart Grids to Smart Cars (Mobility Networks), to Smart Population Healthcare Management to Smart Governance– we were still no closer to the ideal definition of a smart city than at the beginning. This is because everyone has their own take on what they think a Smart City should look like, and the practitioners each arrive at this from their own discipline’s perspective.  Rather like the famous analogy of the 6 blind men and the elephant. In one presentation, the vision of a future filled with smart devices opening your blinds and talking to your coffee filter -and getting your grocery store to directly fill up your fridge- and even reminding you to slow down or take your pills, reminded me of the science fiction that so filled my teenage self’s vision of the future (and, as my adult self sees now, it’s such a first world problem). In another presentation, the idea of governments collaborating with firms to analyze and depict  in real time, large scale but infinitely granular and detailed maps of where and how most of us live, consume energy and water, converse, fall ill, claim insurance and even choose to die, all reminded me eerily of the Orwellian 1984.

But for me, for now it is sufficient to say that a Smart City is supposed to leverage on:

(a) the gargantuan amount of Big Data being generated and collected in real time by sensors on millions of Smart devices who learn from each other in the cloud (Internet of Things, as well as citizens’s smart phones)

(b) the unprecedented intelligent capability of Digitally enabled devices, systems and architecture; smart algorithms; and the power of the crowd(enabling collaborative business and social innovation on robust platforms), that enable two way flow of data and insights on the city’s infrastructure and

(c) the compelling, strategic insights gained through data analysis, visualization and feedback loop (continuous learning) boosted by artificial intelligence as well asdistributed computing power and +robots/drones

to promote sustainability and make urban living seamless, efficient and sustainable – and thereby add value to the lives of the citizens.

Utopian visions abound. From  ideas such as elderly people getting rescued from their lonely apartments after a heart attack because of the energy utility detecting a change in the energy usage in their apartment, to  platoons of smart autonomous cars seamlessly dropping people off at their destinations with no one feeling the need for owning their own.

Clearly, Data is now a new factor in the game, joining Land, Labor, Capital  as a newresource of production. Entrepreneurs as well as big IT and consulting firms are at the vanguard of this revolution- striving to generate value (and big bucks for themselves). Governments are torn between wanting to make all their data public (to enable speed of innovation) and the security nightmares that this can unleash if the data is not properly scrubbed or if hackers can get in. Established hoary industries and firms are trying to get in on the game (by exposing their APIs, collaborating on innovation platforms, etc.) without losing their shirts. And the ordinary citizen looking on, seems a bit bewildered at all that is happening, but still having a certain amount of cautious anticipation about getting more services at democratized prices, and income generation opportunities (and words like “Prosumer”, “Consum-acteur” being used with gay abandon).

In the midst of all this hype about Smart Cities, though, relatively less attention is being given to the perils of this technology being unleashed on a world unprepared even for sensibly sharing the spoils from the technology gains of yesterday, let alone tomorrow. To some extent, debate has started about Cyber hacking and the difficulty of protecting data security and access in the midst of an Open-sourcing revolution. As is well known, connecting any system, asset or device to the internet introduces risk of data breaches, disruption of infrastructure and threats to public safety- and this is further amplified when the connections span an entire city.

But as I asked of the other presenters at the conference- what about less publicized ramifications, such as the perils of e-waste? Are manufacturers of this vast new array of electronic devices going to be held accountable for clawing back the old electronics rather than allowing them to be dumped in nations of the developing world thereby adding to irresponsible disposal and toxic waste?

And it is one thing to talk about greenfield cities as being smart, but what are the implications for brownfield cities? How can we reconcile all this with the need to make even those cities more resilient- both to natural disasters and man-made ones? All requiring huge investment, and none wanting to be left behind. It can’t be so easy there.

And last but not least, the organizational structure of the firm, its relationship with its industry (and with its stakeholders like regulators and environmentalists) can all be expected to dramatically  change with this race to digitization; and affected by the sharing economy and its aftermath. It was one thing to hold large MNCs and small firmsaccountable to shareholders and citizens as well as governments. But when there’s a crime in an Uber taxi, even Uber doesn’t know who’s responsible- who can we blame when things unwind?

Tough and messy, but important questions; and citizens of tomorrow’s smart cities will follow this with bated breath. Not much choice to do otherwise. The future is hurtling towards us faster than ever before. And as one commentator on smart cities, Steven Poole, put it- the things that enable this smart city are a vast network of sensors amounting to millions of electronic ears, eyes and noses- which also potentially enable the future city to be a vast arena of perfect and permanent surveillance by whomever has access to the data feeds.

(For a more upbeat article on the factors enabling this high speed revolution, see my earlier post, on this link- Transformative power of Digital.)